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  • Writer's pictureBeck Parsons

2024 UFC Champ Predictions

Updated: Jul 12

We're now almost a week away from the UFC's first major pay-per-view event of 2024.

UFC 297 in Toronto will see Dricus du Plessis challenge Sean Strickland for Strickland's UFC Middleweight Championship in the night's main event. The co-main will see Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva challenge for the vacant UFC Women's Middleweight Championship that was vacated by the retiring Amanda Nunes. These two title fights are the first of many in what will be a long 2024. With that in mind, it's time for me to make my predictions for who's holding the belts when 2025 rolls around.


HEAVYWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: JON JONES

END OF 2024: JON JONES

While I'm not convinced that heavyweight Jon Jones is the same fighter he once was, I'll have a while to wait before I find out. Jones' pectoral injury that he suffered in October will likely have him sidelined until late 2024. He's made it clear that his first fight will be with heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic, who will be fighting for the first time in three and a half years when the two heavyweights square off later this year. I don't think that Stipe beats Jon Jones, nor do I think Jon fights again in 2024. There's a real possibility that the winner of this fight retires. Depending on timing, that could leave the belt vacant or with interim champ Tom Aspinall when 2025 begins. But I think Jones, after retaining against Stipe, wants to settle his growing Tom Aspinall beef, which means Jones hangs around until 2025.


LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ALEX PEREIRA

END OF 2024: ALEX PEREIRA

Alex Pereira ended his 2024 with a second-round TKO win over Jiri Prochazka. Pereira looks much happier and healthier at light heavyweight. Assuming he doesn't follow through on teases at a heavyweight push, I think Poatan can have a lengthy reign at as UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. To me, his biggest threat in the division is the recovering former champion, Jamahal Hill. Hill has the kind of hard, precise striking that knocked Pereira unconscious when he rematched Adesanya in Miami. Hill will certainly be viewed as a threat after his title-winning demolition of Pereira's coach, Glover Teixeira. Pereira's chin was a serious question at 185 but has held up so far at a safer and more natural 205 pounds. If his chin can hold up against Hill, Pereira has the power and accuracy to stop Jamahal on the feet.


MIDDLEWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: SEAN STRICKLAND

END OF 2024: ISRAEL ADESANYA

Sean Strickland shocked the world when he took the UFC Middleweight Championship away from Israel Adesanya in September of last year. Strickland will look to defend that title against Dricus du Plessis next week. Israel Adesanya has unfinished business with both fighters and exists in a division with no other significant title contenders, so he'll likely get first crack at the winner of Strickland vs. du Plessis. I think a focused and motivated Adesanya can beat both Strickland and du Plessis. Considering the fact that Adesanya's already dealt with the rest of the division's top fighters, he has a good chance of making it into 2025 as a historic three-time middleweight champion.


WELTERWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: LEON EDWARDS

END OF 2024: LEON EDWARDS

Edwards looked unbeatable in his last fight, a five-round outclassing of the seemingly faded Colby Covington. His next title fight will likely be a defense against either Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov. I think Edwards is sharp enough to outdo Muhammad. Their first fight ended in an eyepoke before a winner could be established, so there are real reasons for a rematch. Meanwhile, Rakhmonov is undefeated and appears to be steamrolling towards a title shot. His grappling could pose some issues for Edwards, but Edwards has shown incredible takedown defense and some very capable grappling offense as well. I think 2024 looks like Leon's year to put together some wins and establish a dominant welterweight reign. However, he's shown interest in a middleweight exchange with either Strickland or du Plessis and could potentially make a move in that direction later in the year. A middleweight attempt would protect his status as welterweight champion for a little longer.


LIGHTWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ISLAM MAKHACHEV

END OF 2024:  ISLAM MAKHACHEV

The UFC's pound-for-pound king spent his 2023 defending twin challenges from featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. His first fight was a razor-thin decision win that earned UFC President Dana White's Fight of The Year award. The second, which Volkanovski took on 11 days' notice, ended via a Makhachev head-kick knockout in round one. The champ's next fight will most likely be against the hard-hitting BMF champion Justin Gaethje. Gaethje, who previously lost a title bid to Khabib Nurmagomedov in Khabib's final fight, is exactly the kind of powerful striker that many fans have wanted to see Makhachev face. Makhachev's been so dominant that many fans believe it'll take a knockout shot to end his reign. No one in the lightweight division has more one-punch power than Gaethje, so the BMF champion presents a real threat to Makhachev's reign. However, rising contender Arman Tsarukyan has recently made a public claim for the title, telling Gaethje to wait after until Tsarukyan's UFC 300 bout with the previous lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira. I'm not sure that's realistic. If Tsarukyan makes it past Oliveira (which is a big "If"), he'll likely get the first shot at the winner of Gaethje-Makhachev, a fight in which I'd still favor Makhachev. If Islam makes it past Gaethje, I'd be confident favoring him over the winner of Oliveira-Tsarukyan as well.


FEATHERWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI

END OF 2024: ILIA TOPURIA

Alexander Volkanovski's reign has been as long and great as any UFC champion could hope for. At featherweight, only Jose Aldo's legendary reign was longer. And as Aldo's bout with Conor McGregor showed us, great reigns can end quickly. Ilia Topuria presents a major challenge to the Australian champion, especially after Volkanovski suffered a head-kick knockout to Makhachev in his most recent outing. Topuria is extremely well-rounded and capable of finishing fights on the feet or on the mat. Volkanovski has been historically impossible to submit but may be vulnerable to a finish after coming off of one. I'd favor whoever wins Topuria-Volkanovski to defend the title again successfully later in the year, although Volkanovski likely has an opportunity at a rematch if he loses the first fight. I think Topuria is fresh enough to keep and hold the belt, but you can never count Volkanovski out.


MEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: SEAN O'MALLEY

END OF 2024: CORY SANDHAGEN

Sean O'Malley sent then-champion Aljamain Sterling face-first into the canvas while I, celebrating my birthday on the couch, lost my mind. O'Malley has lethal striking and the footwork and takedown defense required to effectively combat grapplers like Sterling. He's set to take on Marlon "Chito" Vera at UFC 299, a rematch that O'Malley should win if he can stay healthy. Vera was recently outclassed by Cory Sandhagen, a dangerous striker who's recently shown a capable wrestling skillset as well. Vera's history with O'Malley earned a title shot, but you can't argue that Sandhagen isn't deserving of a look. Other top contenders Henry Cejudo and Merab Dvalishvili are battling at UFC 298, and the result of that fight will impact the contender scene. However, I think Sandhagen is capable of beating any of those contenders, and I think he can effectively work at both levels against O'Malley for a title win if given the chance. O'Malley has enough technique and one-punch power to hang with anybody, but Sandhagen would give him an extremely difficult test.


WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: VACANT

END OF 2024: IRENE ALDANA

The Women's UFC Bantamweight Championship is currently vacant following the departure of the legendary Amanda Nunes. Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva will contend for the strap next week at UFC 297. Silva's two consecutive submission wins mean she comes in looking for a finish. I think Silva gets it done against Pennington but fails to defend against Irene Aldana later in the year. Aldana survived an absolute war in December against Karol Rosa and has the power and experience necessary to beat someone like Silva.


MEN'S FLYWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ALEXANDRE PANTOJA

END OF 2024: ALEXANDRE PANTOJA

Alexandre Panjota had a great 2023. In July, he beat then-champion Brandon Moreno by split decision in a Fight of the Year candidate. In December, he defended that title in a dominant performance against Brandon Royval. Amir Albazi and Moreno were supposed to fight in Mexico City in February before Albazi, a prominent contender, pulled out with injury. Albazi recently beat fellow contender Kai Kara-France by split decision. There are a number of names that could hold the title by 2024's end, but I'll favor Pantoja, who looks to be in great form.


WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ALEXA GRASSO

END OF 2024: ALEXA GRASSO

Alexa Grasso shocked the world when she submitted longtime champion Valentina Shevchenko in March. Their September rematch ended in a split draw, which meant Grasso remained champion. The pair are most likely headed for a trilogy in 2024. If Grasso wins, it'll likely be the pair's final fight against one another. If Shevchenko wins, a fourth fight is a real possibility. Either way, Grasso is 30, five years younger than Shevchenko's 35. A prolonged title struggle is likely to favor the younger Grasso.


WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT:

CURRENT CHAMPION: ZHANG WEILI

END OF 2024: ZHANG WEILI

Zhang Weili is one of the most impressive fighters in women's MMA history. From picking up 290-pound Francis Ngannou to outstriking Amanda Lemos 296-29, she's proven to be an incredibly strong and quick fighter that can handily beat anyone not named Rose Namajunas. Before her domination of Lemos, she ended Joanna Jedrjezcyzk's legendary career by vicious knockout and submitted two-time champ Carla Esparza. Weili is slated to face Yan Xiaonan at UFC 300 and will likely have access to a rematch if things don't go her way. Xiaonan is dangerous and knocked out Jessica Andrade inside one round during her only fight of 2023. I'm still giving the edge to Weili given her momentum from her last three fights. She's on her way to becoming one of the greats in women's MMA.

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