This weekend's action proved too much for the Bucs, Packers, Bills and Texans. Now, only four teams remain in the hunt for a place in Super Bowl 58. Before these last four teams can book flights to Vegas, they'll need one more win in their respective conference championship games this Sunday. These are my predictions for the 2023-'24 AFC and NFC Championship games.
AFC Championship Game:
Context: Oh look, it's the two teams we thought would be here in the preseason. I know I picked the Bills this weekend, but at this point a Mahomes AFC championship game seems is an annual occurrence. The #1 Ravens stampeded into this game with a domination of red-hot rookie CJ Stroud and his Houston Texans. Lamar Jackson looks like the league MVP and the Ravens' defense is playing unbelievably. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing in their sixth straight AFC championship game. Mahomes has never been eliminated prior to this game and is 3-2 in AFC title matchups. However, he'll be on the road again this week for only the second time in his playoff career. He's never played this game on the road but is 3-1 against the Ravens in his career. Meanwhile, Lamar is playing in his first AFC championship game. The Ravens haven't made it this far since their Super Bowl-winning 2012-'13 season.
The Game: The Ravens' defense will be what decides this game. They've locked down great offenses all season, and this isn't the best offense Kansas City's ever had. Patrick Mahomes' receiving options will be challenged by a Ravens defense that is fast and tackles well. If the Ravens can lock down Travis Kelce and stop the Chiefs from running the ball, they can feel confident defending wideouts that have struggled to sync up with Mahomes all year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense will need to contain Lamar, whose pocket mobility is a serious challenge for any defense. The Chiefs failed to sack Josh Allen last weekend and will need to improve on that if they hope to beat the Ravens on Sunday. I think that if the Ravens play their best football, they're not going to lose to anyone this year. Mahomes will likely keep things extremely close, but defense wins championships, and the Ravens have the league's most dominant defense.
Official Pick: Baltimore Ravens 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24
NFC Championship Game:
Context: San Francisco took about all it could handle in a surprise thriller against Green Bay last weekend. Brock Purdy threw a number of questionable passes that Green Bay's defense couldn't intercept, while San Francisco's Dre Greenlaw caught two. Greenlaw's heroics were needed following the team's offensive inconsistencies. Meanwhile, the Lions beat the Buccaneers at home after a second-half offensive surge carried them into the lead. The Lions will go on the road for the first time this postseason against a 49ers squad that has been vulnerable to good teams while playing at home. The Lions will need to capitalize on the 49ers' less-than-perfect momentum if they hope to advance to the Super Bowl.
The Game: Turnovers ended up defining last week's game and will likely do so again this weekend. Lions DBs Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are both interception machines and are poised to capitalize on any Purdy mistakes. The Lions' defense will also rely on star edge Aiden Hutchinson to impose pressure on both Purdy and star running back Christian McCaffrey. Hutchinson will have to get past All-Pro tackle Trent Williams if he wants to bring that pressure from the left side. The 49ers offense will be hanging on football Swiss Army knife Deebo Samuel's injury status. Samuel left the field early last weekend and his status isn't currently known. The Lions' offense will hope to utilize star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and star running back Jahmyr Gibbs to against 49ers defensive weapons like edge Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and cornerback Charvarius Ward. Ultimately, it'll be on Purdy to decide this game. If he struggles and turns the ball over, the 49ers lose. If he shines, the 49ers' superior roster should win in convincing fashion. I think it'll be fairly close, but the 49ers are expected to win for a reason.
Official Pick: San Francisco 49ers 27, Detroit Lions 23
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