With Week 12 around the corner, we're three weeks away from the end of the Big Ten's first ever 18-team season. After three months of incredible college football, plenty of teams are still alive in the hunt for some form of postseason glory. Here are three storylines to keep an eye on as we move closer to the end of the regular season.
Penn State benefits from missing the Big Ten title game
The Nittany Lions, currently No. 4 in both the AP Poll and College Football Playoff rankings, are 8-1 with a 5-1 conference record. Their lone loss was a 20-13 home defeat to then-No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 2. Although it ranks as one of the best losses in college football this year, it will likely keep Penn State out of the Big Ten Championship game for the eighth straight year. With undefeated Indiana set to take on Ohio State in two weeks and with No. 1 Oregon expected to finish the season undefeated, there just doesn’t seem to be a way in for the Nittany Lions. In previous years, elimination from a conference title game would leave a one-loss Penn State team with nothing but a consolation bowl game to expect come December.
However, in the 12-team playoff era, Penn State is sitting pretty, and will in all likelihood make the playoffs as a result of missing the Big Ten title game. Why? Because, having already lost to Ohio State, who has in turn lost to Oregon, Penn State would enter said title game an underdog and at risk of adding a second loss to their resume a single day before the College Football Playoff Committee determines their fate on Dec. 8. While the committee hasn’t made it entirely clear how heavily they’ll weigh conference championship losses, Penn State would undoubtedly risk a two-loss season by playing an extra game. That seems like an unnecessary risk to take when a one-loss Penn State would likely finish comfortably within the playoff bubble.
Indiana vs. Ohio State does The Game's job this year
Historically, the Big Ten’s most important game has been Michigan vs. Ohio State. “The Game” has been played 119 times since 1897, almost always late in the season. Because the two rivals have won 84 combined Big Ten titles, their near-annual clash has always been one of the college football season's biggest games.
This year, with Michigan floundering at 5-5, “The Game” is unlikely to change anyone’s postseason fortunes. Instead, everyone will be tuning in on Nov. 26, when undefeated Indiana visits Ohio State. The two are currently ranked No. 5 and No. 2 in the AP Poll respectively and vying for a spot opposite Oregon in this year’s title game.
However, there’s more than a Big Ten title appearance on the line. Indiana’s already-played schedule strength is currently rated 100th of the 134 FBS teams, third-weakest among ranked teams behind No. 18 Washington State (102nd) and No. 24 Army (133rd). Although Indiana is undefeated, their strength of schedule leaves them in perhaps a more vulnerable position than Penn State, whose already-played strength of schedule ranks 30th. If Indiana were to lose to Ohio State, they’d likely fall behind Penn State in the rankings as a result of the vast gap in schedule strength. This would put Indiana at greater risk than Penn State when it comes time to decide which teams deserve a spot in the playoffs. Indiana vs. Ohio State has massive implications for both sides and will likely be one of the most watched games of the year.
UCLA isn’t dead yet
First-year head coach Deshaun Foster, who introduced a new offensive staff after being promoted from running backs coach in February, began his career by going viral for the wrong reasons. He drew criticism for some painstakingly awkward opening marks at UCLA’s media day. "I’m sure you guys don’t know too much about UCLA, our football program, but we’re in LA," said Foster. He followed up that rough introduction by beginning the season 1-5, with the team’s only win a 16-13 Week 0 victory over Hawaii. UCLA seemed headed for its first full-length losing season since 2019.
But then, momentum changed. UCLA has since won its last three games, all of which came against Big Ten opponents (Nebraska, Rutgers, Iowa) who currently hold winning records. With three games remaining (Neither Washington, USC nor Fresno State has a winning record), UCLA doesn’t even need to win out to become eligible for a bowl game.
Sure, UCLA isn’t a playoff threat. And I know what you’re thinking. “But they lost five in a row. Who cares about three wins?” To truly appreciate UCLA, you need to examine those five losses. The first four came via four ranked teams in four straight weeks: Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Penn State. The Bruins’ final loss, a narrow 21-17 defeat to Minnesota, is respectable as well. It’s worth noting that UCLA’s already-played strength of schedule is ninth, the highest of any Big Ten team. Considering their remaining schedule, the Bruins have a clear shot at playing football in December.
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